Model down, distance, score, field position, and overtime rules for decision support.
Football analytics
Football
Drive outcomes, coverage tendencies, win probability, and roster evaluation research.
Eshaan Dhavala
Football Co-Chair
Stats & Data Science · 2027
Abhi Kumar
Football Co-Chair
Math & Economics · 2028
Workstreams
What this team studies
Study coverage, spacing, and drive context behind high-leverage defensive outcomes.
Build repeatable frameworks for roster, prospect, and skill-position evaluation.
Featured work
NFL OT 4th Down Decision Engine
A decision-making tool modeled after NFL Next Gen Stats to help coaches choose the optimal strategy given the 2025 overtime rule change.
Problem
NFL coaches lack a real-time, data-driven framework for 4th-down decisions in overtime, where post-2022 rules guarantee both teams a possession before sudden death.
Approach
Four XGBoost submodels — punt outcome, field goal probability, conversion probability, and win probability — are chained together with isotonic calibration and expected-value maximization to recommend the optimal decision given field position, score, team quality, weather, and venue.
Result
Open tool The live tool at playbyplay.football lets users input any game situation and instantly surfaces win-probability estimates for all three options under current overtime rules.
Active projects
Current work
QB Pocket Clutch Ratings
May 5, 2026Football · 2025-26
A rating system to rank quarterbacks based on their actual versus predicted EPA in clutch situations, utilizing features related to the QB's pocket.
PythonnflfastRXGBoost
Research
NFL Gravity Metric
February 12, 2026Football · 2025-26
A pass-rusher gravity metric that measures observed blocker attention during true pass sets, models expected attention from Big Data Bowl tracking features, and ranks defenders by the extra attention they command.
PythonXGBoostGNN
Research
Archive
Past work
A Quantitative Framework for Assessing Wide Receiver Blocking Effectiveness Using Player Tracking Data
May 15, 2025Football · 2024-25
A tracking-data framework for evaluating wide receiver and skill-player downfield blocking, combining defender angles, speed, ball geometry, and blocker-defender movement into a Blocking Effectiveness Score.
Pythonpandasmatplotlib
ResearchArchived
NFLPA Player Compensation & Contract Analysis
October 9, 2024Football · 2024-25
An analytical report examining NFL Players Association salary distribution, contract guarantee structures, and position-by-position valuation metrics.
JavaScriptQuartoR
ResearchArchived