QB Pocket Clutch Ratings
A rating system to rank quarterbacks based on their actual versus predicted EPA in clutch situations, utilizing features related to the QB's pocket.
No existing metric isolates a quarterback's clutch performance relative to their own baseline — most stats conflate absolute output with situation-adjusted execution, making it impossible to distinguish QBs who genuinely elevate under pressure from those who merely happen to be good.
Paired nflfastR play-by-play data (~7,000 pass plays, 2021 season) with NFL Big Data Bowl 2023 tracking data (10Hz, weeks 1–8) to engineer spatial features — pocket area and collapse rate via convex hull geometry, QB displacement and body orientation at release, and nearest pass-rusher distances and speeds. A leave-one-week-out XGBoost regressor predicts EPA per play from these features, then clutch rating = mean EPA residual on clutch plays (win probability 40–60%, Q4/OT) minus mean EPA residual on all plays.
Patrick Mahomes ranked highest on clutch rating among qualified QBs (≥50 clutch and ≥50 non-clutch plays); Carson Wentz ranked lowest. The metric surfaces quarterbacks who consistently elevate execution under pressure beyond what pocket geometry alone would predict.