NFL OT 4th Down Decision Engine
A decision-making tool modeled after NFL Next Gen Stats to help coaches choose the optimal strategy given the 2025 overtime rule change.
NFL coaches lack a real-time, data-driven framework for 4th-down decisions in overtime, where post-2022 rules guarantee both teams a possession before sudden death.
Four XGBoost submodels — punt outcome, field goal probability, conversion probability, and win probability — are chained together with isotonic calibration and expected-value maximization to recommend the optimal decision given field position, score, team quality, weather, and venue.
The live tool at playbyplay.football lets users input any game situation and instantly surfaces win-probability estimates for all three options under current overtime rules.