Basketball · Tool
NBA Game-State Probability & Arbitrage Engine
Active2025-26Updated May 15, 2026
Project Overview
A probability model and React prototype for evaluating NBA game states, player prop probabilities, and parlay arbitrage against sportsbook pricing.
Problem & Objective
Bettors and analysts lack calibrated models to evaluate multi-leg player prop parlays and identify expected-value discrepancies against commercial sportsbook lines.
Analytical Approach
Built a logistic win probability baseline combined with a calibrated player-slider layer for points, rebounds, and assists, connecting to a React dashboard that compares model-derived prop probabilities against market odds.
Key Result & Impact
Created a functional parlay analysis engine with slider controls and rolling backtests that highlights positive expected-value (EV) props and parlay arbitrage opportunities.
Tech Stack & Tools
ReactTypeScriptPythonStreamlitscikit-learn