Basketball · Tool

NBA Game-State Probability & Arbitrage Engine

Active2025-26Updated May 15, 2026
Project Overview

A probability model and React prototype for evaluating NBA game states, player prop probabilities, and parlay arbitrage against sportsbook pricing.

Problem & Objective

Bettors and analysts lack calibrated models to evaluate multi-leg player prop parlays and identify expected-value discrepancies against commercial sportsbook lines.

Analytical Approach

Built a logistic win probability baseline combined with a calibrated player-slider layer for points, rebounds, and assists, connecting to a React dashboard that compares model-derived prop probabilities against market odds.

Key Result & Impact

Created a functional parlay analysis engine with slider controls and rolling backtests that highlights positive expected-value (EV) props and parlay arbitrage opportunities.

Tech Stack & Tools
ReactTypeScriptPythonStreamlitscikit-learn